Nigeria’s massive Dangote Oil Refinery has emerged as a key player in supplying the United States with jet fuel, helping to meet soaring demand that reached a two-year high in March, according to a Reuters report.
By significantly increasing its exports to North America, the 650,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) Dangote refinery—the largest in Africa—has the potential to drive down jet fuel prices as the peak summer travel season approaches, analysts and storage brokers suggest.
The refinery’s ability to compete with European suppliers on gasoline exports has already been evident. Now, with substantial shipments of jet fuel to the U.S., it could challenge domestic producers in the world’s largest fuel-consuming market.
Strategic Shipments and Market Impact
Data from ship-tracking service Kpler shows that six vessels carrying approximately 1.7 million barrels of jet fuel from Dangote’s refinery have arrived at U.S. ports this month. Additionally, another shipment, transported by the Hafnia Andromeda, is scheduled to reach the Everglades terminal on March 29, delivering an estimated 348,000 barrels.
As a result, total U.S. jet fuel imports for March have surged to around 226,000 bpd—the highest level recorded since February 2023.
Dangote Refinery’s Growing Influence
Operational since January following years of construction delays, the Dangote refinery ramped up production to approximately 85% capacity by early February. This expansion has enabled increased fuel exports to global markets, including the United States.
An unexpected opportunity arose for Dangote due to a supply gap caused by the maintenance-related shutdown of the Phillips 66 Bayway refinery in New Jersey. According to Sparta Commodities analyst James Noel-Beswick, this supply disruption created a rare arbitrage window, making it economically viable for Nigerian jet fuel to flow into the U.S.
However, Noel-Beswick cautions that this opportunity might not be long-term, as elevated U.S. inventories could eventually narrow the supply gap.
Increased Storage Demand and Price Adjustments
The influx of Nigerian jet fuel has contributed to a surge in demand for storage facilities in Houston and New York Harbor. Data from storage brokerage platform TankTiger indicates that storage tank leasing requests for April have averaged around 700,000 barrels—a five- to six-fold increase compared to typical monthly demand.
Steven Barsamian, TankTiger’s Chief Operating Officer, noted that this trend is expected to push U.S. jet fuel prices lower just in time for the peak summer travel period.
Potential Challenges in the Aviation Market
Despite lower fuel prices, air travel this summer may face challenges from economic uncertainties, including stock market volatility and weakened consumer confidence, according to Noel-Beswick.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. jet fuel stocks ended February at 45.2 million barrels—the highest level for that month since 1999. Additionally, U.S. refiners produced record-high jet fuel yields last year, underscoring the increasing demand for aviation fuel relative to other transportation fuels. The EIA also projects that U.S. jet fuel consumption will reach an all-time high by 2026.
With its growing footprint in the international fuel market, the Dangote refinery continues to reshape global trade flows, demonstrating Nigeria’s increasing role in supplying key energy resources worldwide.
